BEYOND THE HEADLINES: WHY NIGERIA MUST MOVE FROM REACTIVE SECURITY TO PREDICTIVE SECURITY

By Ambassador Tosin Michael Owonifari

The recent kidnapping of students and teachers in Oyo State is another painful reminder that insecurity remains one of the greatest threats to Nigeria’s future.

Unfortunately, the incident in Oyo is not an isolated case. Around the same period, reports emerged of attacks on schools and the abduction of children in Borno State, while kidnappings, attacks on travellers, assaults on communities, and other violent incidents continue to affect different parts of the country. In Ekiti State, growing concerns over kidnappings and attacks in several communities have also generated calls for stronger security intervention. From Oyo to Borno, from Ekiti to other affected parts of the country, the pattern is becoming disturbingly familiar. The locations may differ, but the underlying questions remain the same: why do these incidents continue to occur, and what structural reforms are required to reduce their frequency and impact?

As a nation, we have become accustomed to reacting to security incidents after they occur. A kidnapping happens. A community is attacked. Lives are disrupted. Statements are issued. Investigations begin. Security agencies respond. Public outrage follows. Then we move on until the next incident occurs.

This cycle has repeated itself for far too long.

The fundamental question we must ask ourselves is simple: why do we continue to operate a security system that is largely reactive in an era where modern intelligence systems, early warning mechanisms, real-time information sharing, and integrated security infrastructure have transformed public safety management across many parts of the world?

The challenge before Nigeria is no longer merely one of manpower. It is increasingly a challenge of systems, coordination, intelligence visibility, and operational integration.

Security in the twenty-first century cannot depend solely on physical deployment and post-incident response. Modern security ecosystems are built around early warning mechanisms, real-time information sharing, integrated command structures, citizen reporting frameworks, intelligence-led operations, and technology-enabled operational oversight.

The unfortunate reality is that many security incidents across Nigeria expose recurring weaknesses in these areas.

When incidents occur, information is often fragmented. Communication between stakeholders can be slow. Intelligence sharing may be limited. Communities frequently lack structured channels for escalation. Operational visibility can become difficult across multiple jurisdictions. Valuable information that could potentially support prevention often remains disconnected from those who need it most.

These are not merely security challenges.

They are institutional challenges.

This is why conversations about insecurity must move beyond politics and blame. We must begin discussing systems.

The recent incidents in Oyo, Borno, Ekiti, and other affected states should not only provoke outrage; they should provoke reflection.

How can Nigeria strengthen intelligence gathering?

How can citizens report threats more effectively?

How can security agencies achieve greater operational visibility?

How can information flow more efficiently between communities and security institutions?

How can institutions identify patterns and emerging risks before incidents occur?

How can schools, religious institutions, transport corridors, and vulnerable communities be better integrated into national security preparedness frameworks?

These are the questions that deserve sustained national attention.

While there is no single solution to Nigeria’s security challenges, certain priorities are becoming increasingly clear. The country must strengthen intelligence gathering and coordination across security agencies, invest in modern early warning and emergency response systems, improve information sharing between communities and security institutions, and deepen collaboration between federal, state, and local stakeholders. Equally important is the need to build public trust, because citizens remain one of the most valuable sources of intelligence in any effective security system. Prevention must become just as important as response.

Security should no longer be viewed solely as the responsibility of security agencies; it must become a coordinated national effort involving government, communities, institutions, and citizens.

Across the world, governments are increasingly embracing modern security infrastructure to support public safety. Real-time reporting systems, integrated operational dashboards, geospatial monitoring tools, secure communication platforms, and coordinated emergency response frameworks are becoming essential components of effective security management.

Nigeria cannot afford to remain behind this curve.

The future of national security will belong to countries that successfully combine human intelligence, institutional capacity, technology, data, and community participation within a coordinated operational framework.

At the same time, technology alone is not the solution.

Strong institutions remain critical.

Leadership matters.

Accountability matters.

Training matters.

Community trust matters.

Public confidence in security systems remains one of the most important assets any nation can possess. Citizens are far more likely to share information, support security efforts, and participate in public safety initiatives when they trust the institutions responsible for protecting them.

This is why security reform must be viewed as part of a broader national conversation about governance, institutional effectiveness, and public sector modernisation.

The safety of our students, communities, businesses, worshippers, travellers, farmers, and citizens cannot be treated as a seasonal concern. It must become a strategic national priority supported by modern systems, capable institutions, and forward-thinking leadership.

The incidents we continue to witness across Nigeria are unfortunate.

But perhaps they also present an opportunity.

An opportunity to move beyond temporary reactions.

An opportunity to rethink how security is managed.

An opportunity to strengthen intelligence coordination and institutional effectiveness.

An opportunity to build a more resilient and proactive national security framework.

An opportunity to build a Nigeria that is not merely reacting to threats, but actively working to prevent them.

The future of security will not be built on response alone.

It will be built on foresight.

Ambassador Tosin Michael Owonifari

AU Agenda 2063 Ambassador

Founder & Group Chief Executive Officer, T21 Global Group

Digital Governance and Institutional Transformation Leader